Saturday, April 11, 2009

Bulls and Bears Feb - Early April 2009

16 February 2009, Monday, Straits Times Index (STI) sliped 1.3% or 22.33 points to 1,683.31 in the face of weak regional sentiment and poor market participation.

Market participation was muted, with volume shrinking to a two-week low of 701.3 m shares - worth S$683.2m. All figures quoted are in S$

Chief losers, were mainly from banking stocks.
  • DBS - 19 cents down - $8.20
  • UOB - 28 cents down -$11.08
  • OCBC - 5 cents down - $4.96
  • F&N - 12 cents down - $2.78
Expecting fourth-quarter results to be out on next day for OCBC and UOB on Feb 27. Across the board, profit warnings continued to trickle in, giving investors more reason to hold back.

17 February 2009, Tuesday, Straits Times Index (STI) sank 2.55% or 42.78 points to 1,637.92 - its wors fall in one month and its lowest close since late November 2008.
  • DBS - 17 cents down - $8.03
  • UOB - 16 cents down - $10.92
  • OCBC - 6 cents down - $4.90
  • CapitaLand - 9 cents - $2.65
  • City Developments - 20 cents down - $5.22
  • Keppel Land - 7 cents down - $1.36
Most dealers expect more downside to come, due to the persistent bear sentiment.
However, some analysts forecast tht the market could see a rally later in the week if Wall Street reacts positively to a US plan to stem home foreclosures.

5 March 2009, Thursday, the benchment Straits Times Index (STI) lost ground, closing 25.7 points or 1.66% lower at 1,518.64 after investors took profit on blue chips. Of the 30 STI component stocks, only 4 managed to post gains. Trading volume was 1.07 b shares worth $866.3 m Singapore's ecomony may possibly contract as much as 10% this years, as commented in the ST article.
  • BDS - 15 cents down - $7.04
  • UOB - 5 cents down - $9.09
  • OCBC - 13 cents down - $4.12
  • CapitaLand - 6 cents down - $1.89
  • City Developments - 24 cents down - $4.27 ( Lowest since August 2003)
  • SIA - 28 cents down - $9.86 ( Lowest since April 2004)
  • Singtel - 6 cents down - $2.54

7 March 2009, Saturday, ST articles showed some comparision data on market capitalisation of some Bank shares taking a beating. Periods of comparison between September 2008 and Current and also reflecting the share price of both periods. ALl market cap figures covnerted to US$ at present rate and share price based on Thursday' price.
  • HSBC - us$189b - us$68.1b ( HK$121.70 : HK$43.50 )
  • Bank of America - us$142b - us$20.3b ( us$31.14 : us$3.17)
  • Citigroup - $104b - us$5.6b ( us$18.99 : us$1.02)
  • UBS - us$60.6b - us$24.1b ( Sft 23.92 : Sfr 9.52 )
  • RBS - us$54.2b - us$11.7b ( 230 p : 20.8 p )
Singapore 's local banks are regarded as being well-capitalised, though share prices have suffered amid the mauling taken by almost all banks worldwide.
  • DBS - us$17.5b - us$10.2b ( S$17.90 - S$6.90 ) - 41..7% drop in cap.
  • UOB - us$18.5b - us$8.7b ( s$18.76 - s$8.82 ) - 52.9 % drop in cap.
  • OCBC - us$16.2b - us$7.8b ( S$8.00 - S$4.14 ) - 55.3 % drop in cap.
Some banks, such as Lehman Brothers, collapsed under the weight of toxic debts linked to the disastrous US sub-prime mortgage market. Accoding to reports, governments in Europe and the US have decided that the likes of Citi, AIG and RBS are too big to be allowed to fail - as the ripple effects on the wider ecomony would be diabolical.

20 March 2009, Friday, ST articles published Full-year GDP forecast with analysts more bearish on Singapore. With forecast that economic output will shrink by 7 or 8% - it would be Singapore;s poorest performance since the data was first compiled in the mid-1970s, according to the article.

On 20 March 2009, it reported that the US Federal Reserve chairman annouced yesterday that US1.15 trillion (S$1.74 trillion ) would be pumped into the economy, had sent Wall Street and STI with small rise. However, analysts were quick to warn that it may be short-lived, as the economic fundamentals have not improved. Utimately, in the absence of an immediate global economic renaissance, Asian economies will in general remain under pressure and require further fiscal and monetary stimulus.

23 March 2009, Monday, yes there was a bear rally, but too early to hope for any long-term rally as uncertainty rules the day. Just read how it was compared to starting off on a sunny day, but most people have taken to carrying an umbrella in case of a sudden downpour. Was it a cute comparison phrase ? Others put it as this rally is merely the latest in a long series of dead-cat bounces - describing a spike in stock prices after they have fallen to fresh lows - in the past 18 months since the US sub-prime crisis sent global financial markets reeling in pains.

26 March 2009, Thursday, reported an initial dip before gaining some ground in the final hour. A total of 1.27 b shares worth $988.46 m were traded. STI closing at 1,691.68
  • DBS - adding 4 cents - $8.42
  • UOB - adding 4 cents - $10.32
  • OCBC - down 1 cent - $4.87
  • SIA - down 16 cents - $10.02
  • SPH - add 6 cents - $2.61

27 March 2009, Friday, STI ignites hope of recovery with 4% rise surging to $1,758.79
  • DBS - adding 32 cents - $ 8.74
  • UOB - adding 22 cents - $10.54
  • OCBC - adding 20 cents - $5.07
  • Singtel - adding 6 cents - $2.57 ( Morgan Stanley noted the strong Balance Sheet and high cash yields )
  • CapitaLand - adding 17 cents - $2.37
  • Keppel Corp - adding 30 cents - $5.39
  • SPH - adding 8 cents - $2.69

31 March 2009, Tuesday, The key trigger for the nosedive yesterday came with news that the US governement would fund giant automakers General Motors and Chrysler for the next 60 days instead of offering them fresh loans, raising the spectre of bankruptcy. Further fear that the upcoming G20 summit would fail to yield concrete results. With all unfavourable news, sending the STI down 72.52 points or 4.1% to 1,673.14
  • DBS - down 35 cents - $8.21
  • UOB - d0wn 58 cents - $9.60
  • OCBC - down 17 cents - $4.78
  • Sembawang Marine - down 16 cents - $1.75
  • Cosco Corp - down 5 cents - $0.79
  • Keppel Corp - down 31 cents - $4.96
  • SMRT - adding 1 cent - $1.56

1 April 2009, Wednesday, Market ends first quarter on high note - with STI gained 26.85 points or 1.6% to 1,699.99 Generally market is still sceptical that the upswing could be maintained. Traders attributed the rebound to fund managers dressing up the prices of blue chips in their portfolios before they send out quarterly report cards to clients. Moreover with April Fool's Day just around the corner, it would be foolish to load up a huge position.
  • DBS - adding 24 cents - $8.45
  • UOB - adding 12 cents - $9.72
  • OCBC - adding 6 cents - $4.84

4 April 2009, Saturday, reporting on yesterday performance of STI at highest level since 8 January and hope over G-20 buyoyancy sentiment, sending STI gaining 17.53 points, or 4.3 % higher to level 1,820.87 About 1,84 b shares were traded - worth $1.62 billion.
  • UOB - adding 20 cents - $10.68
  • City Developments - adding 28 cents - $5.98
  • CapitaLand - adding 10 cents - $2.70
  • SGX - adding 28 cents - $5.80
  • F&N - down 4 cents - $2.60
  • Golden Agri-Resources - down half cent - $0.285
Asian markets also continued on their winning ways yesterday. In a positive sign from China, credit seemed to be flowing again there, with reports that new loans for last month probably exceeded 1 trillion yuan (S$220 billion). China also said its manufacturing figures had notched up their first expansion in six months. However, the mood was still cautious with impending unemployment figures due out soon.

6 April 2009, Monday, with the space of four weeks, the STI has gained 20% prompting the question of True Rally or just a technical one. Last week, the benchmark index gained 75.21 points and 4.3%, closing at 1,820.87 There are also signs that the economy could be turning the corner and heading for recovery.

7 April 2009, Tuesday, STI closes at highest level since January 7 - driving index up 1.49% or 27.11 points to 1,847.98 Overall, analysts are mixed in their views regarding the direction of the local market.
  • DBS - adding 16 cents - $9.18
  • UOB - adding 26 cents - $10.94
  • OCBC - adding 19 cents - $5.33
  • CapitaLand - adding 11 cents - $2.81
  • City Developments - adding 20 cents - $6.18
  • SGX - adding 15 cents - $5.95
  • Sembawang Marine - adding 18 cents - $2.15 ( after news that its unit had secured a rig order contract worth us$247.3 million.

9 April 2009, Thursday, fresh jitters on Wall Street putting brakes to shares rebounds yesterday. STI slipped 18.43 points or 1.02% to 1,783.96 It has surged nearly 150 points or 8.7%, in the five trading days before Tuesday's retreat.
  • DBS - down 33 cents - $8.50
  • UOB - down 36 cents - $10.12
  • OCBC - adding 6 cents - $5.30
  • CapitaLand - down 7 cents - $2.50
  • City Developments - down 30 cents - $5.52
  • Sembawang Marine - down 3 cents - $1.97
  • Keppel Corp - down 16 cents - $5.30
  • SPH - adding 3 cents - $2.65
  • SMRT Corp - adding 5 cents - $1.53

10 April 2009, Friday, Easter eggs all around yesterday when key regional bourses shot up in response to Wall Street's overnight gains. STI up 2.5% or 44.55 points to 1,828.51 The push was provided mainly by funds driven by positive momentum from Japan and Hong Kong, according to the report. Overall, analysts expect caution ahead in the local market as the corporate earnings season starts next week.
  • DBS - adding 41 cents - $8.91
  • UOB - adding 38 cents - $10.50
  • OCBC - adding 16 cents - $5.46
  • CapitaLand - adding 16 cents - $2.66
  • City Development - adding 13 cents - $5.65
  • Semp Corp Marine - adding 18 cents - $2.15
  • Keppel Corp - adding 20 cents - $5.50 ( news that rig-builder clinched a $518m contract)
  • SIA - adding 48 cents - $11.40
  • SGX - adding 17 cents - $5.90
  • SPH - adding 15 cents - $2.80
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