Is the world still facing economies crisis and recession ? Yes and no. It is becoming increasingly clear that Asia is emerging from the global economies crisis faster than the rest of the world. Over the past five years, China contibuting to world gross domestic product growth from one-fifth to one-third. India's contribution from 6 per cent to 16 per cent.
Different economic indicators from different parts of the world have brightened. China’s economy is picking up. The slump in global manufacturing seems to be easing.
According to IMF, China, a land of 1.3 billion people and India — the only sizeable economies likely to record growth rates of over 5% — will prevent the world from recording negative growth in 2009. Ironically, while the US — where the current global crisis originated — will suffer a decline of only 1.6%, the UK will see its economy shrink by 2.8%, Japan by 2.6% and Germany by 2.5%. The Euro area as a whole will fare worse than the US with a 2% drop in output in 2009, the IMF projected.
With another six months turning to 2010, Asia is looking forward the positive forecast from IMF to foresee an impressive global recovery to 3% growth, with China's 8% and India's 6.5% once again leading the way. Once again, while the US will bounce back to grow by 1.6%, the Euro area will grow by a minuscule 0.2%, the UK by a similar rate and Japan by a somewhat better 0.6%.
US weakened by the financial crisis, deeply indebted, bogged down in Irag, facing major challenges in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and feeling psychologically humbled. It is expected that US may no longer be in the same position as before to lead the international community.
All the nations, especially the Asian countries, all working together to revise their models for international co-operation in a way that incorporates the global shift in economices, will assume more meaningful responsibilities in managing global crises.
